Archive for May, 2011

Electric Cars and Government

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

A couple of weeks ago, I had the opportunity to participate in the AASP-PA meetings in Grantville PA. It was an interesting and informative experience and gave me some insight into the concept of momentum. I came to the conclusion that there exists in the universe a law which states “A bad idea, once moving, cannot be stopped”, especially where government is involved. One of the presenters informed us of the coming revolution that is the electric car, comparing it to cell phones, computers and the early automobile. We were shown charging stations that would allow mainstream use of these vehicles by allowing people to cover greater distances without running out of power. We were told that we were getting a glimpse of the future and once people figured this out, electrics would sell like hot cakes. Well, I have a hard time believing that as the free market has not embraced this mode of transportation, and therefore in my opinion, it has no chance of going mainstream. It has no chance of getting off the ground without government help. Think about the complex government involvement in all markets by way of subsidies, tax breaks, cronyism, favoritism, etc., and the huge costs involved. When the free market satisfies demand for a product or service, that product or service is sustainable until it is no longer applicable or wanted. When government meddles in a market by providing incentives, that market is only sustainable as long as those incentives exist. Despite the fact that Government Motors and Chrysler came back from the dead at the expense of stockholders and Ford Motor, the cost to taxpayers was huge. Saving huge companies such as GM was not about saving jobs, but about saving the government, financiers, and industrialists. GM didn’t pay back part of its debt to the government with profits from operations, but with more debt from banks backed by the government. If the electric car were such a great idea, the free market would fill that need or want at a much lower cost than any government program could produce. A thinking person would say to himself “how can the electric grid handle a huge increase in electric vehicles when PPL is encouraging people to put solar panels on their houses just so the company can get the energy credits?” Hello. They don’t have the capacity. Remember the brownouts? How is that infrastructure buildout going to take place when the government is squashing the use of coal and hydro to produce energy? In 2009 Coal provided 44% of the electricity produced in the United States and 41% worldwide. What is going to replace that? It is pretty hard to beat the stuff in energy per pound. The next biggest is nuclear at about 20%. After the Japanese debacle, don’t expect any buildout in nuclear plants even though the newest technology is safer than coal. The simplest thing the government could do with no increase in bureaucracy is to raise the gasoline tax which increases the price of gasoline to the point that markets demand more fuel efficient or alternative energy transportation. And then get out of the way of free enterprise. Now I can hear the screaming going on about the increased costs to the middle class associated with that idea, but dismantle the bureaucracy now in place and strip out all of the hidden costs in regulations, mandates, etc., forced on the public presently and it would be cheaper to get from point A to point B. People don’t look at the hidden tax of inflation caused by government spending and mandates because they don’t need to overtly fork over the cash or stuff a credit card into the pump. Well, as I said before, if an idea gets any momentum, it will be realized. However, the free market always wins eventually. It may take years and I don’t know what it will look like, but like other businesses, we will adapt to it. Instead of fixing mechanical things we will be fixing electrical things. The good news is that cars are getting more reliable. The bad news is that when something breaks, it costs a lot more to fix it. Properly maintaining any mechanical or electrical device almost always lowers costs over its service life. There’s no getting around that. The economy has been tough on a lot of folks and still looks scary going forward, but at the end of the day, the service industry will still be helping the public get from point A to point B safely and reliably.

Drivers and Aging

Tuesday, May 17th, 2011

Consumer Reports cites research published by the American Psychological Association, on the online journal Neuropsychology that finds as we get older our reaction times slow down. No surprise there. Making people aware of that fact is a good thing, but younger drivers need to be aware of this situation too. It is important for everyone to take the responsibility to develop good driving habits and to practice defensive driving. This means being aware of what is going on around us at all times, a strategy called situational awareness. Seems kind of obvious, but there are all kinds of distractions out there competing for our attention. Cell phones, GPS, radios, loud passengers, an unhappy infant to name a few can create dangerous situations. Situational awareness extends to anticipating what other drivers may do. No one can predict the future, but the behavior of other drivers can give us a clue to what they may do next. My father in law used to ask me what it meant when somebody extended their left arm out the window. I made the mistake of saying they were going to make a left turn. He would say “no, it just means they have their left arm out the window”. Of course, he was right. I got to thinking about that and realized that we tend to make assumptions that get us into trouble. Even a turn signal flashing only means that a turn signal is flashing. It doesn’t mean the driver is going to turn. If someone applies the right turn signal coming to an intersection, we can’t be sure he will turn right or even turn at all . What happens if we try to pass him on the left and he decides that he is going to make a left? Bam! A stop light doesn’t mean another driver will stop. The problem is that we get used to and expect drivers to behave a certain way. We become complacent and complacency breeds contempt, meaning we keep assigning a lower level of risk to a situation until it one day bites us. Next time you are rounding a blind corner on a road you drive everyday, ask yourself whether you could really execute an avoidance maneuver if you had to. Remember, it takes time to recognize a dangerous situation, assign a level of risk to it, and to react. Meanwhile the car is being propelled at the same speed at which you entered the turn. At just 30 mph you are moving along at 44 feet per second. if it takes 1 second to assess the situation and move your foot to the brake, you have traveled 44 feet. That is before the car even begins to slow. Stopping distances are longer in turns because the tires need to handle the change in direction as well as to scrub off speed. There is only so much traction available and they can’t do both to maximum effect. The other variables are tread depth and the age of the tires. Tire Rack ran some tests on stopping distances versus tire tread depth and the results are rather startling. Getting back to older drivers, we must make the assumption that their ability to recognize a situation is going to take more time. Even if they can get their foot to the brake as quickly as they did 20 years before, the stopping distance is still going to increase dramatically. How can we handle this? Be aware of who is in the driver seat and how they are behaving behind the wheel. Don’t make assumptions about anything. I don’t know who coined this poem, but it is appropriate for almost any situation whether pedestrian, bicyclist, motorcyclist, or car driver:Here lies the body of William JayWho died maintaining his right of wayHe was right, dead right, as he sped alongBut he’s just as dead as if he were wrong,Wishing you safe and enjoyable motoring